摘要地方债务风险表示地区政府债务在多种不稳定因条件的作用下，对包含本身在内的社会各个部分带来负面影响的概率。也就是不只表示地方政府无法承担自身偿债责任出现危机的概率，此外也包含因其造成的经济、社会平稳和发展遭遇负面影响的现实概率。目前，国内地方政府债务数值不断提高，此类风险更加严重，债务问题逐渐变成影响社会平稳与经济进步的现实阻碍。本文从地方政府债务风险情况着手，全面研究债务风险的产生和影响条件。之后，表明创建债务风险评估预警制度是现在监管此类债务风险的最佳方式，且引入或量化方式对债务规模开展预估和计算，此外主要使用债务风险整体指数与政府净值两类方式，将汝州市当做案例对政府债务风险评估开展分析。最终，在学习其他国家相关防范的现实经验，指出健全多种制度，加强债务风险管理和创新投融资制度来预防与管控此类债务风险的合理对策和意见。【关键词】地方债务债务成因债务风险风险预警ABSTRACTTheriskoflocaldebtreferstothepossibilityoflocalgovernmentdebtcausinglossestovariousaspectsofsocialeconomyincludingitselfundertheinfluenceofvariousuncertainfactors.Thatisnotonlythepossibilitythatthelocalgovernmentisdifficulttofulfillitsdebtserviceobligations,butalsothepossibilitythattheeconomic,socialstabilityanddevelopmentcausedbythelocalgovernmentwillbedamaged.Atpresent,thescaleoflocalgovernmentdebtexpandsrapidly,thedebtriskisprominent,andthedebtproblemhasbecomeanimportantfactoraffectingtheeconomicandsocialstabilityanddevelopment.Startingwiththepresentsituationoflocalgovernmentdebtrisk,thispaperanalyzesthecausesandinfluencingfactorsoflocaldebtrisk.Then,itispointedoutthattheestablishmentofdebtriskassessmentandwarningmechanismisaneffectivemeanstorealizethelocalgovernmentdebtriskmanagement,andthecontingentdebtquantificationmethodisintroducedtomeasurethetotalamountofdebt.Atthesametime,thedebtriskassessmentofthelocalgovernmentisdiscussedbyusingthedebtriskcomprehensiveindexandthenetgovernmentnetvaluemethod,takingRuzhoucityasanexample.Finally,onthebasisofdrawinglessonsfromtheexperienceofforeigncountriesonpreventingdebtrisk,thispaperputsforwardthefollowingmeasures:perfectingvarioussystems,strengtheningdebtriskmanagementandinnovatingthemechanismoflocalgovernmentinvestmentandfinancingAndpolicyrecommendationsforcontrollinglocalgovernmentdebtrisks.【Keywords】localdebt,debtcauses,debtrisk,riskwarning目录....................................................1..................................................1........................................................1............................................3..........................4....................................................4........................................4....................................5....................................................5..............................................5..............................................6............................7..........................................7........................................7........................................7..........................................8..............................................8..........................8..................8..........................................9..................................9....................................9........................................9..............................9.........................................10.....................................11...................................11..........................
