基于GIS的甘肃省人口密度空间分布模拟摘要人口统计数据空间化是解决统计数据与自然要素数据融合分析的有效途径。本文以甘肃省为研究单元,对小尺度区域的人口密度空间分布模拟进行了初步研究。文章根据2012年5月甘肃省统计年鉴所统计的人口数据,分析了甘肃省各乡镇平均人口密度与土地利用类型指数及地形指数(平均高程和平均坡度)之间的相关性。基于相关性分析,以GIS软件与SPSS统计软件为工具,运用多元回归的思想建立了人口数据空间化模型,同时生成了甘肃省250m*250m空间分辨率的栅格人口密度图。结果表明,模型模拟的精度较高,模拟过程具有较强的可操作性,可为县域尺度人口空间分布的应用研究提供借鉴。同时,研究结果为甘肃省推进城市化进程,提高人口、资源和环境的科学管理提供了理论基础。关键词：区域人口密度;空间分布;GIS;甘肃省AbstractSpatializationofpopulationcensusdataisaneffectivewaytointegratestatisticaldataandnaturalfactors.ThispapertakesGansuProvinceasresearchunit,simulationofpopulationdensityinsmallscalespatialdistributionwerestudied.Accordingtothe2012populationdataofGansuprovinceinMaystatisticalyearbookofstatistics,analysisofthetownshipofGansuprovinceaveragetypeindexandtheindexofpopulationdensityandlanduse(averageheightandaverageslope)correlation.Basedoncorrelationanalysis,usingGISsoftwareandSPSSstatisticalsoftwareasatool,usingmultipleregressiontheorysetupthespatializationofpopulationmodel,whilegeneratingrasterpopulationdensitymapofGansuprovince250m*250mspatialresolution.Theresultsshowthathigherprecision,modelsimulation,thesimulationprocesshasstrongoperability,whichcanprovidereferencefortheapplicationofcountyscalepopulationdistribution.Atthesametime,theresultsforGansuprovincetoadvanceacitytochangeprocess,andprovidesatheoreticalbasistoimprovethescientificmanagementofpopulation,resourcesandenvironment.Keywords:regionalpopulationdensity;spatialdistribution;GIS;GansuProvince目录摘要.....................................................................................................................2Abstract................................................................................................................3目录..................................................................................................................41引言...................................................................................................................41.1研究区概况.............................................................................................52人口空间分布研究发展现状...........................................................................63人口空间分布问题概述...................................................................................74.人口密度的表示方法.......................................................................................84.1范围密度法.............................................................................................84.2方格密度法.............................................................................................85.人口密度的局限性和选题的原因...................................................................96.社会经济与自然因素对人口分布的影响.....................................................107.总结.................................................................................................................11参考文献............................................................................................................12致谢...........................
