I摘要近年來，美元處於加息週期之中，美元資本紛紛回流美國，新興市場國家頻頻出現貨幣危機，如阿根廷、土耳其和印尼。中國經濟在新興市場國家中雖然較好，但也受到國內外諸多挑戰，如中美貿易戰、債市危機、資金荒等。2018年初至今，人民幣兌美元匯率累計跌幅近6.5%，在2015年人民幣匯率已經出現過較大規模的貶值，很多研究表明，在2015年人民幣貶值期間中國出現數值巨大資本外流，2018年以來很多指標顯示有一定規模的資本外流。但外流的規模很少有文獻指出，這不利於中國實施宏觀調控和對於資本外流情況的監控。一般對資本外流的研究著重於對合法管道的資本外流研究，而忽視了地下管道的研究，我們認為地下管道尤其是進出口管道的資本外流有相當大的規模，我們的研究試圖對合法管道和地下管道之間建立一個研究框架，估計出人民幣貶值情況下的資本外流規模。II關鍵字：資本外流人民幣貶值直接法間接法IIIAbstractInrecentyears,theUSdollarhasbeeninthecycleofraisinginterestrates,andUSdollarcapitalhasreturnedtotheUnitedStates.Therearefrequentcurrencycrisesinemergingmarketcountries,suchasArgentina,TurkeyandIndonesia.AlthoughtheChineseeconomyisbetterthanotheremergingmarketcountries,ithasalsoreceivedmanychallengesathomeandabroad,suchastheSino-UStradewar,thebondmarketcrisis,andtheshortageoffunds.IVSincethebeginningof2018,theRMBexchangerateagainsttheUSdollarhasfallenbynearly6.5%.In2015,theRMBexchangeratehasexperiencedalarge-scaledepreciation.ManystudieshaveshownthatduringtheRMBdepreciationin2015,therewasahugecapitaloutflowinChina,andmanyindicatorssince2018.Itshowsacertainamountofcapitaloutflow.However,thescaleoftheoutflowisrarelypointedoutintheliterature,whichisnotconducivetoChina'simplementationofmacro-controlandmonitoringofcapitaloutflows.Generallyspeaking,thestudyofcapitaloutflowfocusesonthestudyofcapitaloutflowsfromlegalchannels,whileignoringtheresearchofVundergroundchannels.Webelievethatthecapitaloutflowofundergroundchannels,especiallyimportandexportchannels,hasaconsiderablescale.OurresearchattemptstolegalchannelsandAresearchframeworkisestablishedbetweentheundergroundchannelstoestimatethescaleofcapitaloutflowsinthecaseofRMBdepreciation.Keyword:Capitaloutflow,RMBdepreciation,directmethod,indirectmethodVI目錄致謝.....................................................................................I摘要....................................................................................IIAbstract......................................................................................................III.....................................................................................................................................6......................................................................................................6.......................................................................................................7.......................................................................................................................7..........................................................................................................................8...........................................................................................8...........................................................................................9............................................................................................................9...........................................................................................
