摘要本文以西安市为研究对象，应用相关分析法、多元回归分析法等，以国内现行财政经济理论为基础，对西安财政收入进行影响因素模型的构建，并对其进行预测。对西安财政收入进行影响因素模型构建时，本文采取定量与定性相结合，其中，占有财政收入较大的税收收入，对财政收入有较大影响的宏观经济形势等因素，均在本文建模中有所体现。通过实证分析、验证，该模型结果具有优良性，而检验结果可延申至其他地方财政收入模型构建，对其具有参考意义。结果发现:（1）税收收入对财政收入具有显著正向影响；（2）全社会固定资产投资这一因素对财政收入影响较大；（3）在岗职工平均工资对西安财政收入影响较大。并结合此给出具有针对性意见。关键词：西安市；财政收入；预测PAGE\*MERGEFORMAT2题目西安市财政收入分析及预测AbstractThisarticleusesmultipleregressionanalysis,correlationanalysisandothertraditionalstatisticalanalysismethodstoestablishananalysismodelandaforecastmodelofXi'anfiscalrevenueinfluencingfactorsonthebasisofmycountry'scurrentfiscaleconomictheory.WhenestablishingtheanalysismodelofthefactorsaffectingXi'anfiscalrevenue,thisarticleusesacombinationofqualitativeandquantitativemethods.TaxrevenueaccountsforthemainpartofXi’anfiscalrevenue.Atthesametime,mycountry’smacroeconomicsituationalsoaffectsXi’anfiscalrevenue.Thesefactorsareestablishedinthisarticle.Itisreflectedinthemodelingprocess.Throughdatatesting,themodelresultsarerelativelyideal,andthetestingresultshavecertainreferencevalueforlocalgovernmentstoestablishlocalfiscalrevenueforecastingmodels.Theresultsshowedthat:(1)Taxrevenueasthemainsourceoffiscalrevenuehasasignificantimpactonfiscalrevenue;(3)Thefixedassetinvestmentofthewholesocietyhasanimportantimpactonthecity’sfiscalrevenue;(3)TheaveragesalaryofemployeesondutyhasasignificantimpactonXi’anfiscalrevenue.Greaterimpact.Andcombinethistogivetargetedopinions.Keywords:Xi'anCity;fiscalrevenue;forecastPAGE\*MERGEFORMAT2目录摘要.................................................................................................................IAbstract...............................................................................................................II1绪论...............................................................................................................11.1研究背景...............................................................................................11.2研究的目的及意义..................................................................................11.3研究内容及方法.....................................................................................21.3.1研究内容.....................................................................................21.3.2研究方法.....................................................................................22文献综述........................................................................................................22.1国外研究...............................................................................................22.2国内研究...............................................................................................32.3国内外研究现状评述...............................................................................43关于西安市财政收入的实证分析与预测...............................................................53.1西安财政收入数据说明............................................................................53.2指标选择.............................
