摘要针对国内某核电机组夏季工况出力不足的问题，提出了一种基于长短期记忆神经网络和随机森林算法的核电汽轮机组出力优化方法。长短期记忆神经网络能实现季节性时间序列的准确预测；随机森林算法对异常值不敏感、具有较强的泛化能力，被广泛应用于分类和回归问题。文中应用长短期记忆神经网络建立海水温度时间序列预测模型，应用随机森林算法建立海水温度和电功率设定值对高压调节阀开度和热功率影响关系的回归模型，将两个模型相结合，获得未来24小时内的电功率设定值优化曲线，机组运行人员可根据该优化曲线调整机组出力。通过该核电机组的历史运行数据，验证了该方法的有效性。基于Flask框架开发了核电机组出力优化WEB应用，并通过Flask+Tornado+Nginx的形式部署于该核电站局域网。采用电功率设定值优化曲线设定机组出力，将在保证机组运行参数不超限的情况下，有效提升机组的夏季出力，提升机组经济性。关键词：核电汽轮机组；出力不足；长短期记忆神经网络；时间序列；随机森林；WEB应用AbstractInordertosolvetheproblemofinsufficientoutputofanuclearpowerplantinsummerinChina,amethodforoptimizingtheoutputofnuclearpowersteamturbinebasedonLSTMandrandomforestalgorithmisproposed.LSTMcanachieveaccuratepredictionofseasonaltimeseries.Randomforestalgorithmisnotsensitivetooutliersandhasstronggeneralizationability,whichiswidelyusedinclassificationandregressionproblems.LSTMisusedtoestablishaseawatertemperaturetimeseriespredictionmodel,andtherandomforestalgorithmisusedtoestablisharegressionmodeloftherelationshipbetweentheseawatertemperatureandelectricpowersetvalueontheopeningofthehigh-pressureregulatingvalveandheatpower.Thetwomodelsarecombinedtoobtaintheoptimizedcurveoftheelectricpowersetvalueinthenext24hours,andtheunitoperatorcanadjusttheoutputoftheunitaccordingtotheoptimizedcurve.Throughthehistoricaldataofthenuclearpowerplant,theeffectivenessofthemethodisverified.BasedontheFlaskframework,thenuclearpowerunitoutputoptimizationWEBapplicationwasdevelopedanddeployedonthenuclearpowerplant'sLANthroughthemethodofFlask+Tornado+Nginx.Usingtheelectricpowersetvalueoptimizationcurvetosettheunitoutputwilleffectivelyincreasetheunitoutputinsummerandimprovetheuniteconomyundertheconditionthattheunitoperatingparametersarenotexceeded.Keywords:nuclearpowersteamturbine;insufficientoutput;LSTM;timeseries;randomforest;WEBapplication目录摘要................................................................................................................................1Abstract..........................................................................................................................21绪论.............................................................................................................................51.1中国核电发展概况...........................................................................................61.1.1形势与机遇.............................................................................................71.1.2问题与挑战.............................................................................................71.2国内外研究现状...............................................................................................81.3本文研究内容和方法.....................................................................................112随机森林回归模型...................................................................................................162.1随机森林算法简介..................................................................................
