I摘要随着改革开放取得了丰硕的成果，我国整体经济形势也不断提升，人们的生活层次也实现了极大的飞跃。在满足了基本的物质需求后，越来越多的人开始逐渐转移到对精神层次的要求中来，这其中就包括了对生活娱乐也有了更高的需求这也导致了我国旅游业快速发展，成为了我国民众最常见的娱乐游玩形式。每年旅游业都保持了7%左右的年增长率，是我国第三产业中增长最快的行业之一。同时旅游业的发展，也带动了旅游地区周边的经济发展，极大的促进了我国社会的整体繁荣性，是目前我国最具发展潜质的产业模式。本次命题会全面的分析我国旅游业目前的消费层级，并通过引用学界的理论对其进行一一比对，同时利用以下五种指标同我国旅游业经济发展加以分析：第一点，人均可支配收入；第二点，消费价格指数；第三点，GDP；第四点，可自由支配时间；第五点，国内旅行社个数，采用2003-2018年的数据将城镇居民人均消费与这五个指标通过EViEWS软件建立多元线性回归模型，再对模型做相关经济意义检验以及统计检验得出最优模型。针对最后的回归分析结果得出，消费价格指数和人均旅游消费两者之间表现出了的负相关关系。最后针对分析结论，对其主要影响因素提出了相关建议，以此刺激居民在旅游上的消费从而促进我国旅游业的发展。关键词：旅游消费；多元线性回归模型；旅游业IIAbstractSincethereformandopeningup,withthecontinuousgrowthofthedomesticeconomy,thegradualimprovementofresidents'livingstandards,people'spursuitofdailylifeisnolongerjustinthematerialneedstobemet,thereisahigherdemandforlifeandentertainment,andtourismhasbecomeoneoftheentertainmentchoices.China'stourismindustryhaslongmaintainedanaverageannualgrowthrateof7%,whichhasbecomeanewgrowthpointofthenationaleconomy.Tourismhasledtothecomprehensivedevelopmentofrelatedindustriesandsocialeconomy,andhasbecomeoneofthepillarindustriesofChina'seconomicdevelopment.Thispaperaimstostudythepercapitatourismconsumptionofurbanresidents.Withreferencetomanyliteratureanddataanalysis,thispaperselectsthepercapitadisposableincomeofurbanresidents,thepriceindexofurbanresidents’consumption,thepercapitaGDPofurbanresidents,leisuretime,andthenumberofdomestictravelagenciesasthefiveindicators.Usingthedatafrom2003to2018,thispaperestablishesamultiplelinearregressionmodelbetweenthepercapitaconsumptionofurbanresidentsandthefiveindicatorsthroughEViEWSsoftware,andthenmakesrelevanteconomicsignificancetestsandstatisticaltestsonthemodeltoobtaintheoptimalmodel.Accordingtothefinalregressionanalysisresults,theconsumptionpriceindexofurbanresidentsisnegativelycorrelatedwiththepercapitatourismconsumptionofurbanresidents,andthepercapitaGDPofurbanresidentsandthenumberofdomestictravelagenciesarepositivelycorrelatedwithurbanresidents.Finally,accordingtotheanalysisconclusion,thispaperputsforwardsomesuggestionsonthemaininfluencingfactors,soastostimulateresidents'consumptionintourismandpromotethedevelopmentoftourisminChina.Keywords:Touristconsumption;Multiplelinearregressionmodel;TourisomIII目录1引言.............................................................................................................................11.1背景及意义.......................................................................................................11.2文献综述...........................................................................................................11.3研究内容与方法...............................................................................................22预备知识...........................................................................................................
