摘要本文在参考国内外研究的基础上，针对城市主干道交通的非线性和时变特性给出了拥堵的定义，成因，分类和特征,对经典拥堵算法和常见交通流预测模型进行分析阐述,重点对算法和模型的原理使用条件进行探讨，分析交通流预测与拥堵识别之间的关系。另外，在阐述主干道定义，特点和速度和流量变化的基础上，建立基于交通流量的主干道交通预测模型，重点对模型的形式进行研究分析。最后，用MATLAB软件进行系统仿真，经过仿真表明基于交通流量的预测方案能够对城市主干道交通状态进行有效地预测分析。关键词交通拥堵预测速度系统仿真AbstractThisstudybasedonthereferencetodomesticandforeign,accordingtothedefinitionofthemaincityroadtraffic,nonlinearandtime-varyingcharacteristicsgivencongestioncauses,classificationandcharacteristicoftheclassicalalgorithm,congestionandtrafficflowpredictionmodelwereanalyzed,withemphasisonthealgorithmandmodelprincipleusingconditionswerestudied,therelationshipbetweentrafficanalysisflowpredictionandcongestionidentification.Inaddition,themaindefinition,basiccharacteristicsandvelocityandflowratechanges,establishmentoftrunkroadtrafficpredictionmodelbasedontrafficflow,keyformofmodelanalysis.Finally,thesystemsimulationwithMATLABsoftware,thesimulationshowsthatthetrafficflowpredictionschemecaneffectivelyforecastandanalysisoftrafficstatebasedonthecityroads.Keywords:trafficcongestionpredictionspeedsystemsimulation目录摘要.........................................................................................................................................IAbstract...........................................................................................................................................II第一章绪论...............................................................................................................................11.1课题的背景及理论............................................................................................................11.2研究的实际意义................................................................................................................11.3城市交通信息预测理论的发展和研究现状....................................................................11.4主要研究内容....................................................................................................................21.5本文内容安排....................................................................................................................21.6本章小结...........................................................................................................................2第二章交通流的相关理论及预测.......................................................................................32.1交通流的定义....................................................................................................................32.2交通流理论发展................................................................................................................32.3交通数据的采集及说明....................................................................................................32.4交通流参数间的对应关系................................................................................................42.4.1密度和速度的关系...................................................................................................42.4.2密度和流量的关系...................................................................
