毕业设计（论文）摘要企业破产是市场经济中的普遍现象。近年来，我国上市公司因财务危机导致经营陷入困境的例子屡见不鲜。事实上，上市公司的财务风险发生总是有一个过程的，由潜伏期到爆发期需要很长时间。及时准确地发现上市公司存在的财务风险,对其各利益相关者主体来说都具有极其重要的意义。建立预警系统对企业财务运营进行预测预报,是十分必要而重要的。本文回顾了有关财务风险预警的相关理论，在介绍Altman的Z计分模型的基础上，随机抽取了深市和沪市共60只A股股票对Z-score模型的适用性进行了实证研究：选取了30家ST公司和30家非ST公司2008年、2009年及2010年三年的相关财务数据，计算各个指标，最终得出Z值，根据Z值的大小确定Z-score模型并不能直接用于我国上市公司预警。但是，通过比较ST公司与非ST公司Z值，对Z值的波动性和各财务比率做分析，适当降低临界点的大小，可以有效的提高准确程度。关键词Z-score模型，财务预警，适用性，实证研究；--I毕业设计（论文）AbstractTheenterprisebankruptcyisacommonphenomenoninthemarketeconomy.Inrecentyears,thelistedcompaniesinChinagotintotroublebecauseofthefinancialcrisiscommonoccurrence.Infact,thelistedcompany'sfinancialriskoccursalwayshavingaprocess,andtheincubationperiodoftheoutbreakwilltakealongtime.Timelyandaccuratelyfindingthelistedcompanies’financialriskhasveryimportantsignificanceforallthestakeholders’subjects.Itisverynecessaryandimportanttoestablishtheearlywarningsystemtopredictenterprisefinancialoperation.BasedontheintroductionofAltman’sZ-scoremodel,thispaperreviewsthefinancialriskpre-warningrelatedtheory,andrandomlyselects60onlyAsharesfromtheShanghaiandShenzhenstockmarketstodotheempiricalresearchabouttheapplicabilityofZ-scoremodel:weselecttherelevantfinancialdatesof30STcompaniesand30normalcompaniesin2008,2009and2010threeyears,thencalculateeachindex,eventuallygetZvalue,andgettheconclusionthatwecan’tdirectlyusedZ-scoremodelintheearlywarningofthelistedcompaniesinChinaaccordingtothevalueZ.However,bycomparingtheSTcompanies’valueZwiththenormal’,analyzingthevolatilityofthevalueZandthefinancialratios,reducingthesizeofthecriticalpointproperly,wecaneffectivelyimprovetheaccuracy.KeywordsZ-scoremodel,Financialwarning,applicability,empiricalresearch；--II目录目录摘要..................................................................................................................IAbstract......................................................................................................................II第1章绪论.............................................................................................11.1研究目的及意义...............................................................11.2国内外研究现状...............................................................21.2.1国外研究现状...............................................................21.2.2国内研究现状...............................................................5第2章财务风险预警理论.................................................92.1财务风险的相关概念.................................................92.1.1财务风险..............................................................................92.1.2财务危机..............................................................................92.1.3财务风险与财务危机的关系................102.2财务风险预警系统理论......................................102.2.1财务风险预警系统的涵义.......................102.2.2财务风险预警系统的功能.......................112.3阿特曼Z-score模型...................
