第1页共21页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第1页共21页中国现存危机--TheEconomistSURVEY:CHINAAdragonoutofpuffJun13th2002FromTheEconomistprinteditionWithWTOmembershipunderitsbelt,andanewleadershipreadytotakeoverlaterthisyear,Chinawouldseemwellplacedtotacklevitalreforms.Butexpectalongwait,saysJamesMilesIFTHEebbandflowofChina'srecenthistoryisanyguide,thecountryisdueforaperiodofmomentouschange.Everydecadeorsosincethecommunistscametopowerin1949hasseenajudderingshiftofgear—thefamine-inducingGreatLeapForward,theviolentfactionalstrifeoftheCulturalRevolution,thestartofeconomicreformsandthenationwideanti-governmentdemonstrationsof1989.Andalreadytwosignpoststothenextmilestonehavecomeintoview.Thefirstwasthecountry'saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)lastDecember,aftera15-yearquest.IntheorythisshouldnotonlyprovidetheworldwithunprecedentedaccesstoChina'smarkets,itshouldalsobindChina'seconomicreformswiththenormsofinternationalbusiness.OptimistssayitcouldeventuallymakeChina'ssecretive,undemocraticandcorruptgovernmentmoreopenandaccountable.PessimistsfearitcouldexacerbateunemploymentandfinancialinstabilityandhastenthecollapseoftheCommunistParty.Thesecondisaquinquennialpartycongressduelatein2002(withnodatesetyet)whichwilllaunchaseriesofleadershipchanges.Thesecouldbethemostwide-rangingofthepasttwodecadesandopenthewaytoatransferofpowertoayounger,perhapspoliticallymoreopen-minded,generation.Itisequallypossible,though,thatthenewleadershipmighttrytoshoreupitslegitimacybybeatingthedrumofnationalismandtherebypushChinaintoconfrontationwithTaiwan,theUnitedStatesandJapan.Rarelyinrecentyearshavetherebeensuchdivergentviewsonwherethecountryisheading.ThatChinahasenteredacriticalphaseofitseconomicreformsisnotindoubt.Butthehopes(orfears)raisedbyWTOaccessionandtheprospectofanewgenerationofleadersareprobablymisplaced.ThewayChinaisrunisunlikelytochangeasaconsequence,atleastnotforseveralyears.WhatwillchangeChinainthenearertermisthehandlingofthefinalandmostarduousphaseofitsreform.ThechancesoffailurearelikelytoriseasChineseleadersbecomeabsorbedinthefractiouspoliticsofsuccession.AndtheconsequenceoffailurecouldbetheveryupheavalthatChineseleadershavestruggledsohardtoavoidsincetheconvulsionof1989.ThetermsofChina'saccessiontotheWTOaremorefar-reachingthanthosesetforanyothernewmemberofthetradingorganisationoritspredecessor,theGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade.TheyrequireChinatoopenhithertojealouslyguardedmarkets,suchasbanking,insurance,telecommunicationsandagriculture.Insomesectors,theloweringoftradebarrierswillcauseunemploymenttorise.Inothersitwillcreatenewjobopportunities.ButtariffbarriersaretheleastofChina'sproblems:itsownarealreadyamongthelowestofany第2页共21页第1页共21页编号：时间：2021年x月x日书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟页码：第2页共21页developingcountry.Muchmoreimportant,thecountrystillneedstointroducemanychangesbeforeitcancallitselfamarketeconomy.WithorwithouttheWTO,Chinaneedstomakethosechangestokeepitshalf-reformedeconomyfromcollapsing.Todothissuccessfully,Chinamustmaintainbriskeconomicgrowth.Evenattheofficialrateof7.3%(whichwasprobablyanexaggeration),growthlastyearwasinsufficienttoabsorbthefast-swellingranksoftheunemployed.Inthecomingdecade,Chinaneedstocreate8m-9mnewjobsayear,upfrom5.5m-6.5minthesecondhalfofthe1990s,accordingtoconservativeWorldBankestimates.Itcouldbemore....
