摘要随着全球烟草行业的发展，现代物流业在烟草行业中的作用越来越重要。根据2018年全国成人吸烟者调查报告显示，中国约有3.2亿吸烟者，占全国人口的22.8％，意味着平均每5个人中，有1个人吸烟。2017年中国烟草销量为4737.3万箱（即11843250包），则表示每人平均要吸370包烟。2016年，中国的烟草利税总额为11436亿元，华为2016年的利润为370亿元，烟草为31倍。2017年再次实现利税11145.1亿元，而中国2017年的财政收入也就17万亿左右，烟草贡献了1/17，为财政做出了巨大贡献。但是近几年烟草行业下挫明显，国家在控制烟草产销量的基础上，提出了去库存化。在烟草业，库存成本很大，而库存成本的有效控制可以降低烟草企业的总成本，推动库存周转，提高烟草企业经济收入，进而增加国家、地方税收。本文通过对离散随机需求下的烟草业库存进行研究，以老边烟草局为例，创建随机库存模型，预测库存安全储存量与最大合理量，进而减少老边烟草局的库存成本，并对其进行优化，有助于提高烟草行业的利润率和核心竞争力。为商业烟草公司建立一个随机多周期库存模型，以确定最佳库存和控制点，达到预期的最大盈利能力。研究表明，该模型可以优化烟草公司的库存，从而优化商业烟草公司的库存成本。关键词：随机库存模型老边烟草局订货量AbstractWiththedevelopmentofglobaltobaccoindustry,modernlogisticsindustryisplayinganincreasinglyimportantroleintobaccoindustry.Accordingtothe2018nationaladultsmokerssurveyreport,thereareabout320millionsmokersinChina,accountingfor22.8percentofthecountry'spopulation,whichmeansoneineveryfivepeoplesmokes.Chinasold47.373millioncases(11843,250packs)oftobaccoin2017,andsaidtheaveragepersonsmoked370packsofcigarettes.In2016,China'stobaccoprofitsandtaxestotaled1143.6billionyuan,whilehuawei's2016profitwas37billionyuan,31timesthatoftobacco.In2017,profitsandtaxeswere1114.51billionyuanagain,andChina'sfiscalrevenuein2017wasabout17trillionyuan,withtobaccocontributing1/17ofthat,makingahugecontributiontothefiscalrevenue.However,inrecentyears,thedeclineofthetobaccoindustryisobvious.Onthebasisofcontrollingtheproductionandsalesoftobacco,thestatehasproposedthedestocking.Inthetobaccoindustry,inventorycostisverylarge,andtheeffectivecontrolofinventorycostcanreducethetotalcostoftobaccoenterprises,promoteinventoryturnover,improvetheeconomicincomeoftobaccoenterprises,andthenincreasethenationalandlocaltaxes.Inthispaper,theinventoryoftobaccoindustryunderdiscreterandomdemandisstudied.Takinglaobiantobaccobureauasanexample,arandominventorymodeliscreatedtopredictthesafeinventoryandthemaximumreasonablequantityofinventory,soastoreducetheinventorycostoflaobiantobaccobureauandoptimizeit,whichishelpfultoimprovetheprofitrateandcorecompetitivenessoftobaccoindustry.Astochasticmulti-cycleinventorymodelisestablishedforcommercialtobaccocompaniestodeterminetheoptimalinventoryandcontrolpointstoachievetheexpectedmaximumprofitability.Theresearchshowsthatthismodelcanoptimizetheinventoryoftobaccocompanies,andthusoptimizetheinventorycostofcommercialtobaccocompanies.Keywords:StochasticInventoryModelLaoBianTobaccoBureauOrderquantity目录...................................................................................................................................................7...........................................................................................................7.......................................................................................................................7.....................................................................................................
