港口集疏运系统发展对策研究——以厦门港为例摘 要港口集疏运系统是港口持续发展中一个很重要的环节，集疏运能力与吞吐量有紧密联系。近年来，厦门港集装箱吞吐量发展迅猛，致使过度依赖公路运输的集疏运系统面临拥堵不畅的问题。本文通过对厦门港集疏运系统的现状分析，发现其中的问题，并且分别提出对策。本文的内容安排如下：首先，本文介绍了国内外对港口集疏运系统的相关研究，阐述了港口的重要性，表明了港口发展对国家经济发展的意义。其次，介绍了厦门港集疏运现状，重点分析了公路集疏运、铁路集疏运、水路集疏运和航空集疏运四个子系统，发现厦门港集疏运系统的主要问题是运输方式不协调。然后运用时间序列模型分析了长期趋势和季节变动分别对集装箱吞吐量的影响。最后，根据厦门港历年的集装箱吞吐量通过灰色预测来预测未来 5 年的厦门港集装箱吞吐量，以此为据，预测出厦门港未来五年的集输运量，随后提出厦门港集疏运系统的发展战略，增强港口竞争力，为以后其他港口的集疏运系统优化升级提供参考依据。【关键词】港口集疏运系统；吞吐量；时间序列分析法；灰色预测模型Port collection and distribution system development countermeasures study -- a case study of Xiamen portAbstractThe port collection and distribution system is a very important part of the sustainable development of port, and the capacity of collection and distribution is closely related to the throughput. In recent years, the rapid development of Xiamen port container throughput, hich has caused the problem of congestion in the over-reliance on road transportation. Through the analysis of the present situation of Xiamen port, the paper finds the problems and puts forward the countermeasures respectively. The content of this article is as follows:Firstly, this paper first introduces the related research of port collection and distribution system, expounds the importance of the port, and suggests that the meaning of port development to national economic development. Secondly, introduces the present situation of Xiamen port collectio...
