土地价格的时空演变及其影响因素分析——以杭州市为例温海珍，张之礼（浙江大学 房地产讨论中心，杭州 310027）摘要：以杭州市 2024 年 5 月至 2024 年 3 月的住宅类土地交易数据，运用空间计量模型，从时间和空间两个层面讨论土地价格的变化趋势及土地价格的影响因素。讨论结果表明，容积率、土地等级对土地价格有显著影响。空间层面上，土地价格的误差项之间存在显著的空间依赖性，邻近地块之间价格波动关联性较大，并且到城市景观中心西湖的距离对土地价格存在显著的负向影响。时间维度上，地价有明显的上涨趋势，但在国际金融危机影响期间地价涨幅明显下降。关键词：土地经济；土地价格；空间计量模型The analysis on spatial-temporal evolution and impacting factors of land prices: Evidence from Hangzhou CityWen Hai-zhen, Zhang Zhi-li(The Center for Real Estate Study, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)Abstract With residential land transaction data in Hangzhou between May in 2024 and March in 2024, applying spatial econometrics model, we analyzed the evolving trend of land prices from the spatial and temporal perspective, in addition to the impacting factors of land prices. The results show that plot ratio and land grade have significant influences on land prices. In space, residual errors of land prices have significant spatial dependence. There is great relevance between prices fluctuation of adjacent lands besides the significant negative impacts of distance to Xihu as the center of city landscape on land prices. In temporal dimension, land prices have obvious rising trend, but the rising degree of land prices declines evidently in the period of international financial crisis.Key words land economy; land prices; spatial econometrics model收稿日期： 基金项目： 国家自然基金（40801057）第一作者：温海珍（1975-），男，江西宁都人，浙江大学房地产讨论中心，管理学博士，副教授。主要讨论方向为不动产投资与管理。E-mail: ningduwhz@hotmail.co...
