摘 要随着经济全球化进程不断深入，中国在世界经济中地位日益重要，国际贸易的发展前景广阔。国际贸易的发展前景广阔。其中物流业在促进贸易发展中起到重要作用。本文收集整理福建省 1998-2018 年的数据，利用实证研究，对福建省现代物流业与出口贸易的关系进行深入研究。首先，通过格兰杰因果关系分析，说明福建的物流业和出口贸易之间缺乏双向的相互促进机制，即福建的物流业可以促进出口贸易的发展，但出口贸易的推动作用并不明显。其次，通过灰色关联度分析法论证了物流产业中七个因素的贡献度，得出在 7 个因素中，港口货物吞吐量、公路货物周转量及水运货物周转量贡献度分列前三。最后，根据现存问题和本文研究结果，给出了些许政策建议。关键词：福建省;物流业;出口贸易;格兰杰因果分析;灰色关联分析AbstractWith the depth of economic globalization，China has played an increasingly part in the world economy with the promising prospect of international trade. There into, the logistics industry has attached great consequence to trade development. Taking the time series of Fujian province from 1998 to 2018 as the empirical research object, this paper analyzes the relationship between modern logistics industry and export trade in Fujian province. Firstly, the granger causality analysis shows that there is no two-way interactive promotion mechanism between Fujian logistics industry and export trade. Secondly, the contribution degree of the seven factors to the logistics industry is proved by grey relational degree analysis, in which the contribution degree of port cargo throughput, highway cargo turnover and water cargo turnover is listed as the top three among the seven factors. Finally, according to the existing problems and research results, relevant policy recommendations are given.Key words: Fujian Province; modern logistics industry; export trade; Granger causality analysis; grey correlation analysis目 录1 引 言21.1 研究背景及意义21.1.1 研究背景21.1...
