影响考研人数的因素分析摘要随着经济的不断发展，一方面社会对人才的需求日渐提高，另一方面我国的就业形势日趋严峻，这样直接导致越来越多的大学生选择考研，考研人数总的发展趋势是增加的，与此同时近年研究生的就业也存在也日趋严峻的问题，所以系统地研究考研人数及其影响因素是很有必要的．本文的主要研究内容就是要通过运用统计预测与决策、数学模型及相关知识来分析影响考研人数变化的部分主要因素，通过这些分析，我们将看到统计预测与决策及数学模型在发展趋势预测类问题研究中的重要作用，并最终建立合理的数学模型来预测分析考研人数发展趋势．关键词：统计预测与决策趋势分析干预分析多元回归AnalysisofTheNumberofPostgraduateEntranceExaminationGePengfeiDirectedbyInstructorJiangShutaoABSTRACTWiththecontinuouseconomicdevelopment,increasingsocialdemandsfortalentsontheonehand,ontheotherhandourcountry'semploymentsituationisgettingworse,whichleddirectlytomoreandmorestudentsarechoosingarticlesbytheexaminationoveralldevelopmenttrendistheincreaseinthenumber,whileemploymentofthegraduatesinrecentyearsarebecomingincreasinglyseriousproblemsalsoexist,sosystematicstudyofpostgraduateentranceexaminationanditsinfluencingfactorsinthenumberisnecessary.Themaincontentofthisarticleistousestatisticalknowledgeaboutmathematicalmodelforforecastinganddecisionmaking,andtoanalysethefactorsaffectingthearticlesbysomeofthemainchangesinthenumber,andthroughtheseanalyses,wewillseethestatisticalandmathematicalmodelforforecastinganddecisionintheimportantroleofdevelopmenttrendinthestudyofsuchproblems,andultimatelytoestablisharationalanalysisofmathematicalmodelstopredictgraduatepopulationtrends.KEYWORDS：Statisticalforecastinganddecision-makingTrendanalysisInterventionanalysisMultipleregression目录摘要..............................................................I英文摘要...........................................................II前言..............................................................11知识储备..........................................................21.1统计预测的基础介绍..........................................21.1.1应用与方法............................................21.1.2统计预测的原则和步骤..................................21.2应用预测分析方法概述及实施..................................21.2.1干预分析模型预测法....................................21.2.2多元线性回归预测法....................................32变量的选取........................................................43模型的建立........................................................53.1制作曲线图观查曲线走势......................................53.1.1确立初步模型..........................................53.1.2分离数据，估算参数....................................63.1.3计算净化序列建立拟合模型..............................63.1.4组建干预模型..........................................73.1.5预测对比..............................................73.2多元线性回归预测模型........................................83.2.1模型的建立............................................83.2.2模型的检验............................................83.3模型小结...................................................124总结和建议.......................................................13参考文献...........................................................14附录.............................................................15致谢.............................................................17前言最近几年考研人数发...
